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    1. Source: US Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics, monthly CSV at census.gov/econ/bfs (released Sept 11, 2026). US total, seasonally adjusted, rolling 12-month sums.

      Tool: Python + matplotlib.

      A few notes:

      – “Plan to pay wages” is the Census WBA series: applications that list a first wages-paid date on IRS Form SS-4. It’s the earliest official signal of a new business that expects to have payroll.
      – The chart starts in October 2008 because the wages series drops by about a quarter in a single month in late 2007, which is probably a processing change rather than behavior. The record low holds against the earlier years too, since those numbers were higher.
      – The 2025–2026 decline is gradual month by month, not a one-month step.
      – In January–August 2026, 6.9% of applications planned to pay wages. In the same months of 2024 it was 10.6%.
      – An application is not a business. Many of these never do anything, which is kind of the point.

    2. Many new entrepreneurs are empowered by AI. They build products, or start building products, but don’t plan on paying wages, because they are a startup of one or two people.

      That would be my intuitive reaction here.

    3. Add mine to the applications that don’t plan on paying employees. That being said I’m a single person LLC that makes pottery so I don’t need employees as of present. Plus this is mostly a side business since I have a main job as money is tight. But hey if a miracle happens and I become the biggest master potter in the PNW I guess I might think about adding people on.

    4. A_Novelty-Account on

      A combination of AI making starting a business easier and a chronically underemployed population looking for work