Danielle Smith’s popularity dips as her party now tied with NDP in support: poll
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/janet-brown-poll-ucp-ndp-support-september-2026-9.7357390
Danielle Smith’s popularity dips as her party now tied with NDP in support: poll
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/janet-brown-poll-ucp-ndp-support-september-2026-9.7357390
5 Comments
The hilarious part is the NDP isn’t really gaining, it’s all the UCP losing support to the Tory’s and Liberals. If the NDP aren’t taking the lions share of those lost UCP supporters in Calgary it says bad things about their performance as a whole.
Basically their entire plan seems to be just right wing vote splitting. It should work well in Calgary and that might be all it takes to take the next election.
That’s Janet Brown, too, who is one of the most accurate pollsters in the country. Though she generally only polls in Alberta, but she still does exceptionally well. Anyway, this is great news for the NDP and really bad news for the UCP.
If she’s finding a tie, that really helps explain the Calgary by-election just recently. Other pollsters like Leger had a 10 point lead, and it just never seemed realistic after what happened in the by-election.
Ultimately, it looks like more Albertans are finally holding Danielle Smith and the UCP accountable for the referendum and her handling of the US. It’s a rare occasion when the main conservative party in Alberta is polling this low. It’s nice to see, especially given the context of the UCP’s actions of late.
My flabbers are ghasted. Words cannot describe how terrible this government is. Leaving aside the shitty culture war bullshit, they straight don’t govern.
Smith has spent all her energy trying to ingratiate herself to the UCP base, and God help you with the things they are interested in; not lest of which bringing in this useless pre-referendum garbage.
Now it’s coming back to bite her in the general. She will probably be fine still as Alberta is Alberta, but I 100% expect her to be removed by the UCP membership by someone who is severely cognitively deficient much sooner than later. If you get into a ‘I’m crazy just like you’ contest with the base, you will lose it because they are actually crazy and not just pretending like Smith.
Janet Brown is the gold standard for polls in Alberta and I was looking forward to this one after the last two polls from Leger and Research Co. respectively painted vastly different pictures. Leger basically said all is still well for the UCP and they’d cruise to an easy majority. Research Co, while still showing UCP+5, painted a picture where the UCP is in trouble: the election would essentially be a toss-up due to NDP’s better efficiency.
This Janet Brown poll largely corroborated Research Co’s version of events. At 41-41, the NDP would win a majority (NDP 47, UCP 40). Imo this is corroborated by the vibes on the ground, which is that the referendum is deeply unpopular and the UCP is seen as complicit.
This isn’t to say that it’s all sunshine and rainbow for the NDP. If these numbers hold, many ridings would be extremely close and could go either way. I also think that vote splitting could go both ways. The Progressive Tories could siphon votes off of not just UCP but also NDP. With how popular the federal government is, the Alberta Liberals could even play spoiler.
That being said, I wonder if even these numbers from Janet Brown underestimate UCP’s troubles. At 41-41, Calgary Shaw would not have been a riding that flipped. And it seems that the Edmonton regionals are a bit low for the NDP.