"My analysis shows that replacing diesel with electricity would:
- – Eliminate about $35 billion of diesel imports (year to June 2026), which could be expected to lift the value of the $. This includes replacement of diesel in mining (easy) and agriculture (hard).
- – Cut road transport’s fuel bill by $26 bn a year at this year’s prices, or $16 bn at pre-Hormuz prices. After netting off lost fuel excise and road user charges, the saving is about $9 bn a year on $75 bn of road freight revenue, which lowers the cost of moving goods by over 10 per cent.
- – Avoid $6 bn a year of health costs
- – Improve the productivity of mining
- – Improve national security"
Australia can gain more from eliminating diesel than enabling AI
22 Comments
Great analysis though who shall fund electrification? AI is not being funded by Government.
why not do both?
Whatever happened to the biodiesel pilot program?
“Best I can do is an entire new fleet of diesel buses.”
– High profile Queensland man, c2026.
It’s interesting to learn that even long distance (over 800kms) freight trucking is feasible for electrification and that companies are already trialing it, but I don’t see why there’s any reason to choose between AI and doing that, considering that companies are already exploring electrification of freight even without much in the way of government incentives just because it would save the companies so much money. In terms of freight though, seems government encouragement to reduce reliance on diesel would be nice, but maybe better spent on train infrastructure where companies are less likely to be willing or able to do it by themselves because it’s so tied up with government’s maintenance/ownership of the lines. Expansion and electrification of train lines would also reduce reliance on diesel and make it easier to expand passenger rail as well which could reduce road use. And knowing that all the major rail bridges near me are over 100 years old, with the continued freight running on them they are going to need to be duplicated sooner or later (not replaced tho, as they’re all heritage listed they’re so old lol) so government money is going to be needed there.
How do you eliminate diesel for agriculture? Sorry genuine question?
Yea tell that to qld lnp.
100% renewables and 100% ev let’s go
Someone needs to remind BHP of this. I’m sure they will be very receptive. NOT!
A great macro analysis, but not yet achievable in the real world due to the weight of batteries reducing freight capacity especially long distances from cities and charging infrastructure. I believe we’ll have to combine battery electric with hydrogen trucks for long distances although the regional infrastructure argument is stronger against hydrogen. Biodiesel, can be used in a 5% blend but Renewable Diesel, Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO) is an interesting option. The point is there isn’t a single solution – yet.
As for AI, no data centres without providing a share of the AI business to the Australian government and no privatisation of that share later.
We can’t eliminate diesel with current battery energy density
Shh. You’ll upset Gina
Pursuing electric trucks over electric rail is perhaps even more ridiculous than our persistence with diesel trucks over diesel rail.
Sorry chief, my new grift centre needs diesel for it’s back-up.
Does your graph for break even points include the interest on the capex? Because companies will be borrowing to cover the purchase.
You ignore the significant capex required to replace current fleet with electric, replacement will only happen when the diesel carriers are required to be replaced. Add in the fact that with heavy batteries come reduced loads, thus less financially viable. This is doubly true of the significant farm machinery investment that uses diesel, they’ll run them into the ground before they get replaced
AI is doing already incredible stuff in Medicine. Some diseases that we have had no cure for are likely to be solved a lot sooner than expected.
The second big change is going to be solid state batteries. Within the next 5 years there will be EVs with 1500 km range. We will be able to electrify our trucking fleet and the economics of doing this will be a no brainer. Diesel will be obsolete soon.
Have you factored in the lost revenue from normal level of diesel excise? That money will need to be collected from other avenues
The health savings may be considerably more, depending on how much diesel particles contribute to various allergy and autoimmune diseases in masked ways. I once asked a leading allergy clinician what he would do if he were King for a day. He replied “Ban diesel engines”. They emit particles that are just the right size to fuck with the juvenile thymus. The organ that destroys white blood cells that attack our own tissues. Fuck with the thymus and our immune system causes a lot more collateral damage.
Eliminate diesel with the use of AI actually no it’s super intelligence now according to the gremlin
Y’all: I didn’t write the article, and can’t answer your questions – send ’em into the author of the article.
What I *can* say is, for the folk who are all “how can we afford this”? We can stop with the diesel fuel tax credit.
“in the 23 years from 2007 to 2030, Australia will spend 50% more on the diesel fossil fuel subsidy than on transitioning our energy system to renewables by 2050. ”
[https://reneweconomy.com.au/capping-australias-biggest-fossil-subsidy-is-the-productivity-reform-we-cant-afford-to-ignore/](https://reneweconomy.com.au/capping-australias-biggest-fossil-subsidy-is-the-productivity-reform-we-cant-afford-to-ignore/)
We can totally ditch diesel, and we don’t need the diesel tax credit, which is going to the likes of Gina Rinehart who does not need it.
[https://reneweconomy.com.au/australian-industry-can-ditch-diesel-says-report-but-not-without-ditching-its-subsidy-first/](https://reneweconomy.com.au/australian-industry-can-ditch-diesel-says-report-but-not-without-ditching-its-subsidy-first/)
You all know if you replace diesel vehicles with electric ones, you have to actually buy those vehicles, right? That’s a cost completely ignored by the paper.