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    AI industry needs to earn $6 trillion by 2031 to justify data centres
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    AI industry needs to earn $6 trillion by 2031 to justify data centres

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    1. Wagamaga on

      The global artificial intelligence industry needs to earn $6 trillion in annual revenue by 2031 to justify the capital being deployed to build data centres around the world, Bain has said.

      Existing consumer and enterprise AI services may generate as much as $1.8 trillion of that sum, leaving $4.2 trillion in new revenue that needs to be created, the consulting firm said on Tuesday in its annual global technology report.

      The shortfall will probably come from nascent segments ranging from autonomous machines and robotics to emerging fields such as drug discovery, mental health and energy generation, it said.

      “What the industry needs is a wave of innovation that will dwarf what mobile and cloud unlocked,” said David Crawford, the report’s lead author and chairman of Bain’s global technology, media, and telecommunications practice.

      “AI infrastructure is being built well ahead of the demand curve and funding it sustainably will require adding approximately 1 per cent to the annual global GDP growth rate,” he said.

      Bain’s report highlights the hurdles ahead to make the current pace of AI development sustainable.

      Companies led by Microsoft, Alphabet’s Google, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms and Oracle are investing trillions of dollars in data centres to quench AI’s demand for computational resources.

      Data centre sizes and costs are doubling roughly every 12 to 16 months, in part due to surging prices of chips from the likes of Nvidia and SK Hynix, of networking equipment and other components.

    2. grafknives on

      Is it possible?

      Yes.

      How?

      Regulatory capture.
      Just imagine the economic system where tech company presence is mandatory in most fields of our lives, extracting 5000$ per citizen per year. It is in healthcare, education, retirement and services. It is on our roads, in our media, in your wallet.

      And it is unavoidable, because it it forced by the governments themselves. And every day and every year we get poorer and poorer, as this 5000$ per person revenue stream must flow…

    3. Thefar on

      Did a quick search. Cars and insurances are slightly below that amount. And are among the highest earners worldwide.

      Ai would need to surpass something that most of the people need and use (in industrial countries).

      Not even half the people need and use AI. Much less would pay for it.

      Brace for impact.

    8. invyros on

      AI used as excuse to layoff people -> jobless consumers with diminished spending power -> enterprise revenue down from reduced consumer spending -> reduced enterprise spending on AI services -> ??? -> trillions in revenue for AI companies

      Imagine the fuckery (circular investments, corrupt government contracts, straight up bailouts) that occurs in the “???”.

    10. suna-fingeriassen on

      And to put it in perspective, you need to have x amount on a given time to reach y at a time in the future, and then calculate in the annual growt … how does that look?

      If we look at todays AI spending, companies want to spend LESS because they cannot see the value of AI in their financial calculations and results. They have spent a lot and should see the value by know, if not then there is no value.

    11. karl4319 on

      So a quick google search has current total AI related profits at 400 billion last year. But the overwhelming majority of that is from infrastructure (Nvidia) with only 10% or so being from services. So to make the *minimum* needed, they need to increase their profits by over 100 times in the next 4 years?

      This is really giving some MLM vibes here. The open source models are more than good enough for most people and tasks, so where is this 6 trillion coming from?

    15. SingleAttitude8 on

      The funny thing is that despite claims of AI affecting up to 50% of jobs, and claims that AI has increased productivity up to 100x productivity by some AI advocates, real GDP growth in United States has risen by only 1-2% over the last year.

      Surely if even the most pessimistic claims about AI are true, we should be seeing GDP growth an order of magnitude higher?

      So either the AI advocates are wrong, or most of the apparent ‘productivity’ being created by AI has little or no or negative economic value.

    16. Wrong-Fella on

      I think most people see AI as something along the lines of what Flash websites were at the time and current efforts at monetising the Internet are largely frowned upon so I can’t imagine what Internet users could possibly receive in order to justify spending anything near that amount. And that’s not even taking consideration the backlash against cost of living increases, tech oligarchs and AI itself.

    17. Pinoybl on

      LOL.

      Let’s take all of the money and pour it into this new industry.

      Then inflate the cost of components so we have less disposable income.

      All while blocking two major traffic ways for oil, to inflate the cost of fuel.

      So people further spend money.

      Then the new industry can magically generate revenue from people with less money.

      Make it make sense

    19. dethnight on

      So either AI flops hard and it was all a waste, or it hits 6 trillion and the only way it hits 6 trillion is that it has replaced so many workers that unemployment will drastically increase. How does the average person win here?

    20. fakeuser515357 on

      The goal is to become too big to fail and then milk the penopticon funding that the oligarchy demands they receive.

      AI companies exist for oppression.

      The technology could be truly great but the ownership and commercialisation model demand otherwise.

    21. DataDude00 on

      Quite simply it will never happen 

      My company has spent years telling us to use more AI. 

      This summer they told us to slow down because they were using using too many tokens and the cost was too high.   We are still on the introductory pricing with bonus tokens too.  It only goes up from here 

      Companies quite simply will not pay what it will cost for these AI companies to turn a profit 

    24. starchimp224 on

      They could make 100,000 trillion and it wouldn’t justify it in my mind. Cut your losses while you’re already behind. Don’t make it worse