South Africa ends Load Shedding in Part Due to Boom in Private Solar Installations

# South Africa and Load Shedding in Part Due to Boom in Private Solar Installations

South Africa’s persistent power woes have led to an unprecedented boom in private solar installations, significantly impacting the country’s energy landscape. The country’s state power utility, Eskom, has been grappling with frequent power outages due to its aging coal-fired plants, but a shift towards solar energy is changing the narrative.

## Eskom’s CO2 Reduction Amid Coal Plant Extensions

Despite plans to extend the life of six coal-fired power stations, Eskom’s CEO, Dan Marokane, remains confident that the utility will meet its ambitious target of reducing carbon emissions by 71 million metric tons annually by 2030. “We have a target that is clear to be met by 2030. That is the 71 million tons equivalent of CO2 (reduction),” Marokane told Reuters. “That target remains. We will meet it.”

Eskom’s strategy involves a more aggressive rollout of renewable energy sources. The utility aims to build out its renewable portfolio and significantly expand its transmission capacity, which will require an estimated $16 billion over the next decade. “We’re going to build up our own renewable portfolio, and we’ll be doing it now rather than later. That’s our focus,” Marokane emphasized.

## The Surge in Private Solar Installations

South Africa has witnessed a remarkable increase in private solar installations, driven largely by commercial and industrial (C&I) projects. In 2023 alone, C&I projects accounted for 65% of all new solar capacity added in Africa, with 2.4 GWp installed—more than double the capacity of large-scale projects for the same period.

The country’s private solar capacity surged from 983 MW in March 2022 to 4,412 MW in June 2023, a 349% increase in just over a year. This boom in private solar installations has been instrumental in mitigating the impact of Eskom’s load shedding. “The boom in rooftop solar in South Africa not only gives consumers electricity sovereignty in the face of load shedding, but it also means load shedding does not have to be so severe,” said South African energy expert Anton Eberhard.

Eskom has paused blackouts in the past three months due to better maintenance of its coal fleet and power generation from 5 gigawatts of private solar installations. This improvement in power generation reliability is a testament to the growing impact of private solar installations on the country’s energy stability.

## Government Support and Regulatory Changes

The South African government has played a crucial role in promoting solar adoption. In its 10-point energy plan published in 2022, the government relaxed regulations for private power generation and introduced tax rebates for solar panel installations. These measures have spurred a significant increase in solar adoption among both businesses and households.

A notable example is the home solar tax incentive, which allows individuals to claim rebates equal to 25% of the cost of new solar panels. This incentive, set to expire on February 29, 2024, has driven many households to invest in solar energy.

## The Impact on Eskom and the Energy Landscape

The rapid growth of private solar installations has implications for Eskom and the broader energy sector. Research from Morgan Stanley suggests that electricity generated from the private sector could surpass Eskom’s output by 2025. This shift underscores the declining reliance on coal and the increasing importance of renewable energy in South Africa’s energy mix.

Eskom’s inability to add further generation in the three Cape provinces, which are ideally suited for renewable generation, due to full transmission capacity highlights the challenges faced by the utility. However, the rise of private solar installations offers a glimmer of hope in addressing the country’s energy crisis.

## Looking Ahead

South Africa’s energy transition is still in its early stages, and the country faces significant challenges in achieving its climate goals. However, the rapid uptake of private solar installations demonstrates the potential for renewable energy to play a pivotal role in the nation’s energy future.

As Marokane noted, “There’s a general acceptance that energy security is important… and that South Africa needs to transition to green energy in a very careful manner.” The ongoing efforts to expand renewable capacity and improve transmission infrastructure will be critical in ensuring a sustainable and reliable energy supply for South Africa in the years to come.

While Eskom continues to navigate its challenges with coal-fired plants, the boom in private solar installations is reshaping South Africa’s energy landscape. This shift not only alleviates the severity of load shedding but also positions the country as a leader in renewable energy adoption on the continent.