Uber is partnering with Chinese firm BYD to buy 100,000 robotaxis, and launching them in Abu Dhabi and Singapore. Put another way, Uber & BYD are about to make 100,000 taxi drivers in Abu Dhabi and Singapore unemployed. In four years' time, it is likely we will be talking about millions of driving jobs, and all over the world, as we rapidly move to all human driving jobs disappearing forever.
Although we don't know how the future of AI and robotics automation is going to play out, we can foresee that there will be significant milestones. When the population in Western countries realizes that all driving jobs (taxis, truckers, etc) are going/gone forever, it will be one of those. This will be at the same time call center, customer support, admin, paralegal, etc, etc and many other white-collar jobs will be disappearing forever too.
The optimistic scenario is that our free market economies will continue to employ expensive humans and be able to compete with firms where AI & robot employees cost pennies per hour, but many have their doubts about that.
How do you think this issue will first be addressed in future US (or other countries) elections?
Is this the last presidential election in US history that won't be dominated by the issue of reorganizing society as free-market human jobs disappear to automation?
byu/lughnasadh inFuturology
5 Comments
Robots are gonna appear a lot like smartphones did, where you don’t see much of anything about them but then before you know it you will start just seeing them everywhere. I think that proliferation will be what really sparks this conversation.
Taxi drivers are in the firing line first. But it won’t stop there. Uber drivers, limo drivers, truckers, bus drivers, and delivery drivers are obvious targets. If self driving keeps going it will also put a dent in driving instructors and mechanics jobs. Why learn how to drive if the car drives itself anyway. And if you don’t own a car you dont need it serviced either.
And things can get really unrecognizable if all people stop driving. Because why put signs for people to find their way if all the cars are self-driving? You can create a digital overlay. If a local council wants to add a speed bump somewhere they could simply instruct the cars to pretend there is one by marking the location on a map.
Things get bigger from there. From a certain perspective almost all jobs are in some way involved in moving things around. The farmer who harvests crops is really just moving things around. The crop dusting company is really just moving things around. The warehouse worker picking items of shelves to fulfil an order is really just moving things around. Moving things around is a large part of the economy and humans will start playing a smaller and smaller role. We will have humans only in those places where a dexterity gap exists due to not having developed the technology yet.
EDIT: and of course, if you aren’t buying cars you don’t need insurance for the car, you don’t need show rooms, you don’t need dealerships, you don’t need financing, there will be no advertising, and the list keeps going
They are likely to throw out a distracting issue instead. “Hey look over there, a man is using the ladies room” Much easier to get people angry about a non-issue than a real issue.
It’s a pity, neither you nor I will live in this wonderful time. This is all a very, very, very distant future. From the moment any mature technology appears to the moment of mass implementation, 20-25 years pass. And driverless cars have not even gotten out of diapers yet. The first swallow will be a freely sold driverless serial car for ordinary roads, which will not have a place for the driver. From this moment, you can start counting a quarter of a century, after which drivers should start thinking about changing their profession. Well, not earlier.
Considering the fact that up to 70% US GDP is driven by consumerism, the idea that companies will automate everything and shrink work force without gov stepping is idiotic. If people don’t have jobs and they are not spending, the economy stalls and the doomed effect is failed in reverse. Most of what you’re saying will eventually happen in 10-15 year horizon, not by next the election or the one after it.