How can we agree on what will happen in the future? Prediction markets give people good incentives to make accurate predictions – if they are right they will get money, if they are wrong they will lose it.
There is increasing discussion about a bird flu pandemic – will it be the next Covid? will it be a seasonal flu? Will it be less than that?
This site uses prediction markets and other forecasting sites as well as CDC data to provide context. It then combines this data into a single index, currently it gives the chance that bird flu will be the next covid as “Little chance”.
Hopefully this is valuable to people. What do you think of the notion of using forecasting sites for dashboards like this.
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Submission statement:
How can we agree on what will happen in the future? Prediction markets give people good incentives to make accurate predictions – if they are right they will get money, if they are wrong they will lose it.
There is increasing discussion about a bird flu pandemic – will it be the next Covid? will it be a seasonal flu? Will it be less than that?
This site uses prediction markets and other forecasting sites as well as CDC data to provide context. It then combines this data into a single index, currently it gives the chance that bird flu will be the next covid as “Little chance”.
Hopefully this is valuable to people. What do you think of the notion of using forecasting sites for dashboards like this.