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    [OC] Probability of qualifying for the next phase of the UEFA Champions League Mathematics vs. Bookmakers
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    [OC] Probability of qualifying for the next phase of the UEFA Champions League Mathematics vs. Bookmakers

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    1. TheKitof on

      Chart produced with :

      For [oddschecker.com](http://oddschecker.com) bookmaker data (data from 01/23 at 9am EST, may vary since)

      For the mathematical model, simulation of 100,000 matches with a poisson distribution of 1.2 for goals.

      Tool: Excel

    2. blackkeymaster on

      „how to read the chart“. Maybe if I could read the text I would be able to read the chart.

    3. jpj77 on

      Manchester City winning at home vs. Club Brugge only has a 36% according to the analytical model?

      They’re in poor form but that still seems to call into question the model.

    4. Loightsout on

      Who or what chose the club names to display?

      Bayern M., B. Dortmund
      Paris, PSV
      Athleti???

      Inconsistency at its best.

    5. rchurch26 on

      Definitely worth pointing out that anyone looking at this post should not use it as reason to place bets given the clear flaws in the modelling.

      You don’t find many edges of ~50%, if you did, betting would be a lot more profitable for a lot more people.

    7. kdnlcln on

      This is not Mathematics v Bookmakers. This is one model (with some dubious output) v a composite of many models plus wisdom of the crowds.