Asteroid 2024 YR4 chance of hitting Earth up to 1 in 53
Asteroid 2024 YR4 chance of hitting Earth up to 1 in 53
12 Comments
Maybe we deserve it. On the other hand, maybe this will help us all unite to save humanity
*cue heroic music*
Yeah. And if it hits somewhere then it’s “thoughts and prayers”. That usually helps a lot….
I think it’s kinda pointless to keep guessing the probabilities at this stage as they most likely will be in a very similar range to the ones that we already have. I imagine we won’t get any new substantial information for a while. It took Apophis two years to be downgraded.
Either way, worst case scenario it would cause a Tunguska-like event over southern India or the coast of Nigeria. Which is…not ideal but also not world ending.
The odds keep increasing over the past few weeks, a couple weeks ago, it was 1.3%, then they were saying 1.5% now it’s 1.9%
Is there anything we can do as citizens to bring this number down? I’m thinking a 1 in 1 chance would be the best outcome. If we all jump at the same time on the correct side of the planet could we maybe move it enough to put it in the path. Just spitballing here.
We won’t get a true estimate until after the next flyby in 2028.
Is this because the uncertainty volume shrinking and earth is still within it? If so, the probability will keep going up until it shrinks to the point where earth goes outside the uncertainty volume. Then the probability will go to almost 0.
Wonder if this will be the grand finale of the 2020s
You ever grab a deck of cards and said I’m going to pull out a joker and actually did it?
Things expand when they get hot. With global warming on its continued course, we are increasingly becoming a bigger target.
Giant Meteor 2028 gets my vote for the (hopefully) next US Presidential election!
Fucking bring it. What does it matter at this point.