Poles will be richer than Britons in five years’ time because of Brexit, Donald Tusk, the prime minister of Poland, has said.
Mr Tusk was European Council president during the Brexit negotiations and was notorious among Brexiteers for his scathing criticism of the decision to leave the EU.
He referred to a Labour forecast based on World Bank data that said Poland would outstrip the UK in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita by 2030.
“A fierce debate is taking place in Great Britain caused by the World Bank’s forecast that GDP per capita will be higher in Poland than in the UK in 2025,” Mr Tusk said on the 20th anniversary of Poland’s membership of the EU.
“And I promise this: on the 25th anniversary, Poles will be richer than the British. It’s better to be in the EU,” he said on social media on Wednesday.
Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, in February used the World Bank data to bolster his arguments for a change of government at the next election.
The Office for National Statistics estimated the Polish-born population of the UK was 691,000 in 2020. The most spoken non-native language in Britain is Polish and it is estimated almost a million Poles lived in the UK before the 2016 Brexit referendum.
>Mr Tusk referred to World Bank forecasts which show that GDP per capita in 2021 was £36,038 ($44,979) in Britain and £27,974 ($34,915) in Poland.
So by 2029 (in 5 yrs), there will be a $10k increase in the GDP per capita for Poles and that will bring it level to UK’s per capita GDP in 2021 (assuming UK’s per capita GDP stays the same as 2021 in 2029). Interesting, I will definitely be keeping an eye on this, being fully aware of what WB forecast are like…..
Durumbuzafeju on
“He referred to a Labour forecast based on World Bank data that said Poland would outstrip the UK in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita by 2030.”
And how will GDP per capita translate to personal income?
adilfc on
Got to be hard since minimal British wage is around polish average wage
leukonoe on
As a Pole, I have some serious doubts, but keep my fingers crossed
JohnnySack999 on
Misery loves company
potatolulz on
/r/the_donek
maximum optimism 😀
GeorgiaWitness1 on
Personally i think, as an high income earner, is already worth it going to Poland:
B2B contracts for IT: 12.5% tax rates, or 5% IP box
salaries around 30-40k pln
much lower cost of living – i don’t spend more than 4kpln, counting with rent
Much higher presence of remote jobs compared to the UK
I love Poland, the lifestyle is a bit “gluten free bread” but for sure has a future and i want to be part of it.
Informal-Ad-4102 on
And Britain tried to oust “Eastern Europeans”. Ahahaha. GL on your journey Poland, you will do it 👊
Greetings from Germany 🇩🇪
Grand-Jellyfish24 on
No Brexit means Brexit, did he not hear that.
Significant_Room_412 on
So Brexit suddenly means that all these African , Latin and Middle Eastern dictators/ oligarchs and business men,
Will suddenly move all their billions from London to Warsaw?
The very latest numbers also suggest a bounce in the UK economy, and the Polish population is not exactly a very young one , since they did not like immigration…
So in a few years, after the whole defense investment thing is done,
What will be the main growth sectors of Poland? Because I’m not getting it to be honest…
Jazano107 on
Doubt it, UK is still ahead of France in most sources for GDP per capita
Cr33py07dGuy on
I also think there’s something nice about being somewhere where things are getting better each year vs worse, regardless of where you are sitting at that moment.
defcon_penguin on
Looking forward to see all the British plumbers moving to Warsaw
Enginseer68 on
Keep dreaming
Too bad people still take what politicians say as truth LOL
hoolcolbery on
Considering Britain is richer than Spain, Italy and France and is still the second richest nation in Europe…
He’s basically saying he thinks in 5 years Poles will be at least the second richest nation in Europe.
I’m pro- European but a bit weird to single out Britain and claim Brexit will be the cause of that, when Brexit has happened, and Britain still is the second richest country worth $3 trillion while Poland has yet to even reach $1 trillion.
Even considering Poland’s population is about half of Britains, the average Pole holds a third of the wealth of the average Brit.
So you’d need China level growth figures over longer than 5 years, while Britain stagnates or goes into recession for Poland to catch up and beat it.
[deleted] on
[deleted]
Vertitto on
shitty UK and Poland great seems to hit both nations in the right spot, spreading the meme
Heldbaum on
In PPP only.
Kenzie-Oh08 on
Okay..so?
6Arrows7416 on
This seems optimistic, but not impossible.
Teex22 on
I mean, they’re probably not far off already.
Things are a bit shit here.
itkovian on
Not that this statement alone does not mean Polish people will become richer 🙂
Sarnecka on
While it’s a nice pipe dream, in order for this to happen they need to avoid the middle income trap.
“The middle-income trap refers to a situation whereby a middle-income country is failing to transition to a high-income economy due to rising costs and declining competitiveness. Few countries successfully manage the transition from low to middle to high income”
thecraftybee1981 on
He’s the leader of Poland. If he can’t deliver that I hope the people hold him to account.
NobleForEngland_ on
Brexit also killed my dog 🙁
Admirable-Word-8964 on
Some optimistic Maths here, average Polish salary currently : £18.4k pa, Polish average real wage growth since Brexit (seeing as argument is Brexit based) 1% pa. UK current average salary £35k pa, UK average real wage growth since Brexit 1-2% pa. Not only is UK salary twice as high it’s also growing faster (when adjusted for inflation).
If by rich he means actual wealth held by citizens then median for UK is 151k, Poland is 20k, not much need for 5 year predictions here.
dazzypowpow on
Lol
Syph3RRR on
I have issues trusting anything coming out of a Donald T‘s mouth but hey let’s give this one a chance
whatsgoingon350 on
So in 5 years, Poland won’t need any more support from the EU and actually start paying more than receiving.
First-Butterfly-1530 on
he’s such a fucking rat. 5 years from now a 2 room flat in Chujwiegdzie, Poland will cost 1mln zł thanks to his love for property developers
cheesemaster_3000 on
Classic populist: make outrageous statement – get free publicity from social media that makes money on engagement.
Dziadzios on
That doesn’t mean we’ll be any richer. Just them poorer.
M0D_0F_MODS on
Have anyone ever seen Donald Tusk and Red Forman in the same room? 🤔
DarleneSusan1468 on
Interesting perspective!
Northseahound on
It will be Brits going to begging for a job soon. Oh my my we can’t as we are not Europeans!
36 Comments
***The Telegraph reports:***
Poles will be richer than Britons in five years’ time because of Brexit, Donald Tusk, the prime minister of Poland, has said.
Mr Tusk was European Council president during the Brexit negotiations and was notorious among Brexiteers for his scathing criticism of the decision to leave the EU.
He referred to a Labour forecast based on World Bank data that said Poland would outstrip the UK in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita by 2030.
“A fierce debate is taking place in Great Britain caused by the World Bank’s forecast that GDP per capita will be higher in Poland than in the UK in 2025,” Mr Tusk said on the 20th anniversary of Poland’s membership of the EU.
“And I promise this: on the 25th anniversary, Poles will be richer than the British. It’s better to be in the EU,” he said on social media on Wednesday.
Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, in February used the World Bank data to bolster his arguments for a change of government at the next election.
The Office for National Statistics estimated the Polish-born population of the UK was 691,000 in 2020. The most spoken non-native language in Britain is Polish and it is estimated almost a million Poles lived in the UK before the 2016 Brexit referendum.
**Read more:** [https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/02/donald-tusk-poland-brexit-gdp-per-capita-world-bank-eu/](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/02/donald-tusk-poland-brexit-gdp-per-capita-world-bank-eu/)
>Mr Tusk referred to World Bank forecasts which show that GDP per capita in 2021 was £36,038 ($44,979) in Britain and £27,974 ($34,915) in Poland.
So by 2029 (in 5 yrs), there will be a $10k increase in the GDP per capita for Poles and that will bring it level to UK’s per capita GDP in 2021 (assuming UK’s per capita GDP stays the same as 2021 in 2029). Interesting, I will definitely be keeping an eye on this, being fully aware of what WB forecast are like…..
“He referred to a Labour forecast based on World Bank data that said Poland would outstrip the UK in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita by 2030.”
And how will GDP per capita translate to personal income?
Got to be hard since minimal British wage is around polish average wage
As a Pole, I have some serious doubts, but keep my fingers crossed
Misery loves company
/r/the_donek
maximum optimism 😀
Personally i think, as an high income earner, is already worth it going to Poland:
B2B contracts for IT: 12.5% tax rates, or 5% IP box
salaries around 30-40k pln
much lower cost of living – i don’t spend more than 4kpln, counting with rent
Much higher presence of remote jobs compared to the UK
I love Poland, the lifestyle is a bit “gluten free bread” but for sure has a future and i want to be part of it.
And Britain tried to oust “Eastern Europeans”. Ahahaha. GL on your journey Poland, you will do it 👊
Greetings from Germany 🇩🇪
No Brexit means Brexit, did he not hear that.
So Brexit suddenly means that all these African , Latin and Middle Eastern dictators/ oligarchs and business men,
Will suddenly move all their billions from London to Warsaw?
The very latest numbers also suggest a bounce in the UK economy, and the Polish population is not exactly a very young one , since they did not like immigration…
So in a few years, after the whole defense investment thing is done,
What will be the main growth sectors of Poland? Because I’m not getting it to be honest…
Doubt it, UK is still ahead of France in most sources for GDP per capita
I also think there’s something nice about being somewhere where things are getting better each year vs worse, regardless of where you are sitting at that moment.
Looking forward to see all the British plumbers moving to Warsaw
Keep dreaming
Too bad people still take what politicians say as truth LOL
Considering Britain is richer than Spain, Italy and France and is still the second richest nation in Europe…
He’s basically saying he thinks in 5 years Poles will be at least the second richest nation in Europe.
I’m pro- European but a bit weird to single out Britain and claim Brexit will be the cause of that, when Brexit has happened, and Britain still is the second richest country worth $3 trillion while Poland has yet to even reach $1 trillion.
Even considering Poland’s population is about half of Britains, the average Pole holds a third of the wealth of the average Brit.
So you’d need China level growth figures over longer than 5 years, while Britain stagnates or goes into recession for Poland to catch up and beat it.
[deleted]
shitty UK and Poland great seems to hit both nations in the right spot, spreading the meme
In PPP only.
Okay..so?
This seems optimistic, but not impossible.
I mean, they’re probably not far off already.
Things are a bit shit here.
Not that this statement alone does not mean Polish people will become richer 🙂
While it’s a nice pipe dream, in order for this to happen they need to avoid the middle income trap.
“The middle-income trap refers to a situation whereby a middle-income country is failing to transition to a high-income economy due to rising costs and declining competitiveness. Few countries successfully manage the transition from low to middle to high income”
He’s the leader of Poland. If he can’t deliver that I hope the people hold him to account.
Brexit also killed my dog 🙁
Some optimistic Maths here, average Polish salary currently : £18.4k pa, Polish average real wage growth since Brexit (seeing as argument is Brexit based) 1% pa. UK current average salary £35k pa, UK average real wage growth since Brexit 1-2% pa. Not only is UK salary twice as high it’s also growing faster (when adjusted for inflation).
If by rich he means actual wealth held by citizens then median for UK is 151k, Poland is 20k, not much need for 5 year predictions here.
Lol
I have issues trusting anything coming out of a Donald T‘s mouth but hey let’s give this one a chance
So in 5 years, Poland won’t need any more support from the EU and actually start paying more than receiving.
he’s such a fucking rat. 5 years from now a 2 room flat in Chujwiegdzie, Poland will cost 1mln zł thanks to his love for property developers
Classic populist: make outrageous statement – get free publicity from social media that makes money on engagement.
That doesn’t mean we’ll be any richer. Just them poorer.
Have anyone ever seen Donald Tusk and Red Forman in the same room? 🤔
Interesting perspective!
It will be Brits going to begging for a job soon. Oh my my we can’t as we are not Europeans!