[SS from essay by Jack Watling, Senior Research Fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank.]
After months of delay, Congress’s passage of a nearly $61 billion U.S. aid bill to Ukraine has provided a vital lifeline to Kyiv. But the aid package alone will not solve Ukraine’s larger problems in its war with Russia. Ukrainian forces are defending frontlines that span some 600 miles of the south and east of the country, and prolonged inaction in Washington has left them severely stretched. The influx of U.S. weapons and ammunition should significantly raise the cost to Russia of its impending summer offensive. The aid also offers Ukrainian forces enough materiel to support more systematic military planning for the summer and fall.
Yet ending the war on terms favorable to Ukraine will require far more than a new pipeline of equipment. More than two years since Russia’s full-scale [invasion of Ukraine](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/tags/war-ukraine), its objective in the war remains unchanged: the Kremlin seeks to subjugate Kyiv. Inconstant support and political delays among Ukraine’s international partners have left that outcome all too plausible. If Ukraine is to prevent Russian victory in the longer term, it will need a comprehensive strategy. This means training, equipping, and mobilizing new forces. It means convincing the Kremlin that continuing the war will become increasingly risky to Russia over time. And it means establishing a position of sufficient strength to be able to set forth, on Ukraine’s own terms, the parameters of a lasting peace.
Major_Wayland on
Ukraine literally cannot negotiate, it even has a law against it. Zelensky continues to build his strategy on maximalist “total victory” goals and does not even mention other options.
BrtFrkwr on
Ukraine negotiated a settlement with Russia before. They know what will happen if they negotiate another one. There is no reason to believe Putin will honor any settlement and they know it. More discussion of it is just more academic chewing of the cud.
3 Comments
[SS from essay by Jack Watling, Senior Research Fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank.]
After months of delay, Congress’s passage of a nearly $61 billion U.S. aid bill to Ukraine has provided a vital lifeline to Kyiv. But the aid package alone will not solve Ukraine’s larger problems in its war with Russia. Ukrainian forces are defending frontlines that span some 600 miles of the south and east of the country, and prolonged inaction in Washington has left them severely stretched. The influx of U.S. weapons and ammunition should significantly raise the cost to Russia of its impending summer offensive. The aid also offers Ukrainian forces enough materiel to support more systematic military planning for the summer and fall.
Yet ending the war on terms favorable to Ukraine will require far more than a new pipeline of equipment. More than two years since Russia’s full-scale [invasion of Ukraine](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/tags/war-ukraine), its objective in the war remains unchanged: the Kremlin seeks to subjugate Kyiv. Inconstant support and political delays among Ukraine’s international partners have left that outcome all too plausible. If Ukraine is to prevent Russian victory in the longer term, it will need a comprehensive strategy. This means training, equipping, and mobilizing new forces. It means convincing the Kremlin that continuing the war will become increasingly risky to Russia over time. And it means establishing a position of sufficient strength to be able to set forth, on Ukraine’s own terms, the parameters of a lasting peace.
Ukraine literally cannot negotiate, it even has a law against it. Zelensky continues to build his strategy on maximalist “total victory” goals and does not even mention other options.
Ukraine negotiated a settlement with Russia before. They know what will happen if they negotiate another one. There is no reason to believe Putin will honor any settlement and they know it. More discussion of it is just more academic chewing of the cud.