Chance of ‘city-killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4 smashing into Earth rises yet again to 3.1%, NASA reports
https://www.livescience.com/space/asteroids/chance-of-city-killer-asteroid-2024-yr4-smashing-into-earth-rises-yet-again-to-3-1-percent-nasa-reports
Chance of ‘city-killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4 smashing into Earth rises yet again to 3.1%, NASA reports
https://www.livescience.com/space/asteroids/chance-of-city-killer-asteroid-2024-yr4-smashing-into-earth-rises-yet-again-to-3-1-percent-nasa-reports
18 Comments
Snippet from the article:
NASA has increased the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032 to 1 in 32, or 3.1%, up from 1 in 42 as reported in previous calculations.
The probability that a major asteroid, big enough to wipe out an entire city, will hit Earth in 2032 has just increased to 1 in 32, or 3.1%, according to NASA.
On Feb. 7, NASA increased the likelihood that asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit Earth in seven years time from 1.2% to 2.3%. The odds of impact then climbed to 2.6%, and are now at 3.1%, according to the latest data on NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies website.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has an estimated diameter of around 177 feet (54 meters), or about as wide as the leaning tower of Pisa is tall. But while it is too small to end human civilization, the asteroid could still wipe out a major city, releasing about 8 megatons of energy upon impact — more than 500 times the energy released by the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima, Japan.
Anyone know if they have run a simulation to determine the possible impact site? I didn’t see that in the article.
Collective human consciousness is drawing the asteroid closer to earth.
We will get a much more accurate picture of this asteroid when the JWST takes a look next month.
I thought it said Kitty Killer at first and got freaked out
Do we have any viable defense programs to deter this if it actually would be on track to hit a city?
Don’t look up is reality, I mean compare the american politics, it’s like a carbon copy of the movie
Good thing we already did a successful test run with the DART project of deflecting an asteroid. It costs a couple hundred million dollars though, which will probably be cut from the NASA budget. Oh well, it was a good ride while it lasted.
Hey, better rates of happening that pulling for a limited character in a gacha game, take that information however you want.
Yeah these numbers are all living in the wrong direction.
I saw a satirical bumper sticker that said “GIANT METEOR – 2024” in white text on a blue field
I hope that dude didn’t peel it off, all he needs is a white paint marker and he’s got the most topical bumper sticker in town
fingers crossed, let’s get that number up folks!
if we can change random number generators, we can steer this thing home too!
everyone, on 3!
thiiiiiiiiiink
The more people they fire, the more likely something catastrophic will happen.
The impact probability will likely go up a bit further and then drop off.
As our confidence Intervall (Elipse?) shrinks (and still includes earth) the mathematical probability for an impact increases because earth now fills a larger portion of the confidence Intervall.
If the confidence Intervall continious to include earth, the probability will increase up 100 %.
If the confidence Intervall does not include earth anymore at some point, the probability for an impact drops off sharply.
This is a well known pattern. There is no need to worry (yet).
Man it would be so dope to see two solar eclipses AND an astroid strike! Fucking crazy!
What an outstanding time to be removing scientists from NASA.
Are the Elon/Trump admin going to do the “Don’t Look Up” with their personnel cuts?
Who is going to do the studies and calculations when Elon cuts all spending at NASA to fund SpaceX Mars stuff. The ESA/JAXA ? Sorry for my ignorance but are they capable?