I think we are on the cusp of an era in human history that is unlike any of the eras we have experienced before. And we’re not prepared in part because it’s not clear what it would mean to prepare. We don’t know what this will look like, what it will feel like. We don’t know how labor markets will respond. We don’t know which country is going to get there first. We don’t know what it will mean for war. We don’t know what it will mean for peace.
And while there is so much else going on in the world to cover, I do think there’s a good chance that, when we look back on this era in human history, A.I. will have been the thing that matters.
One of the people who reached out to me was Ben Buchanan, the former special adviser for artificial intelligence in the Biden White House. I thought Buchanan would be interesting to bring onto the show for a couple of reasons.
One, this is not a guy working for an A.I. lab. So he’s not being paid by the big A.I. labs to tell you this technology is coming.
Two, he has been at the nerve center of the policy we have been making in recent years — particularly to try to stay ahead of China.
Three, because there has been a profound changeover in administrations. The new administration — with Elon Musk and Marc Andreessen and David Sacks and JD Vance — has a lot of people with very strong views on A.I.
We’re at this moment of a big transition in policymakers, and they are probably going to be in power when artificial general intelligence, or something like it, hits the world. So what are they going to do? What kinds of decisions are going to need to be made? And what kinds of thinking do we need to start doing now to be prepared for something that virtually everybody who works in this area is trying to tell us, as loudly as they possibly can, is coming?
AGI would be an enormous leap over what we have now. I highly doubt the current administration will still be in power by the time AGI comes out, if humanity can manage to build one at all. Given the current administration is already causing a brain drain and destroying the trust the US had with its allies and trade partners, the US is unlikely to be the first to AGI. Will likely be China or perhaps a united Europe.
If we’re seriously only a few years from AGI and these clowns are the ones who get their hands on it, consider us doomed anyway.
Mikowolf on
Coming, probably yea. Within this administrations term? (~4years)
No way.
Anything_4_LRoy on
OpenAI’s definition of AGI or…. *almost* everyone elses?
pathetiq on
Current systems are only a decision tree. We are faaaar from agi. FUD.
AE_WILLIAMS on
What if AGI was invented 20+ years ago, and what we are seeing happening now is the implementation of the plans and goals it came up with? This could explain the large acceptance of the billionaire class coming into play as political forces.
Kitakitakita on
I’ve been watching an AI think that the best way to get out of Mt. Moon is through suicide. It’s not coming
anquelstal on
Everyone aware of all the AI advancements, knows its coming.
TornCinnabonman on
IMO we aren’t as close as they say we are. This is like driverless cars, where we are 90% of the way there, but the last 10% is extremely difficult to attain. Labs are trying to hype themselves as being on the cusp to drive investor interest. They also love the smell of their own farts.
nosmelc on
We’re not going to have AGI any time soon unless the US or Chinese government has a secret Manhattan Project-style program to develop it using all new technologies.
ramesesbolton on
I feel like the media and government has really gassed up “AI” (machine learning, really, but that’s so 2010) to heroic proportions. what we have now and are calling AI is nowhere close to true intelligence. it’s a different paradigm entirely, more like a sophisticated search engine and data aggregator.
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I think we are on the cusp of an era in human history that is unlike any of the eras we have experienced before. And we’re not prepared in part because it’s not clear what it would mean to prepare. We don’t know what this will look like, what it will feel like. We don’t know how labor markets will respond. We don’t know which country is going to get there first. We don’t know what it will mean for war. We don’t know what it will mean for peace.
And while there is so much else going on in the world to cover, I do think there’s a good chance that, when we look back on this era in human history, A.I. will have been the thing that matters.
One of the people who reached out to me was Ben Buchanan, the former special adviser for artificial intelligence in the Biden White House. I thought Buchanan would be interesting to bring onto the show for a couple of reasons.
One, this is not a guy working for an A.I. lab. So he’s not being paid by the big A.I. labs to tell you this technology is coming.
Two, he has been at the nerve center of the policy we have been making in recent years — particularly to try to stay ahead of China.
Three, because there has been a profound changeover in administrations. The new administration — with Elon Musk and Marc Andreessen and David Sacks and JD Vance — has a lot of people with very strong views on A.I.
We’re at this moment of a big transition in policymakers, and they are probably going to be in power when artificial general intelligence, or something like it, hits the world. So what are they going to do? What kinds of decisions are going to need to be made? And what kinds of thinking do we need to start doing now to be prepared for something that virtually everybody who works in this area is trying to tell us, as loudly as they possibly can, is coming?
Even more than AGI is coming => [https://www.uberai.org/](https://www.uberai.org/)
AGI would be an enormous leap over what we have now. I highly doubt the current administration will still be in power by the time AGI comes out, if humanity can manage to build one at all. Given the current administration is already causing a brain drain and destroying the trust the US had with its allies and trade partners, the US is unlikely to be the first to AGI. Will likely be China or perhaps a united Europe.
If we’re seriously only a few years from AGI and these clowns are the ones who get their hands on it, consider us doomed anyway.
Coming, probably yea. Within this administrations term? (~4years)
No way.
OpenAI’s definition of AGI or…. *almost* everyone elses?
Current systems are only a decision tree. We are faaaar from agi. FUD.
What if AGI was invented 20+ years ago, and what we are seeing happening now is the implementation of the plans and goals it came up with? This could explain the large acceptance of the billionaire class coming into play as political forces.
I’ve been watching an AI think that the best way to get out of Mt. Moon is through suicide. It’s not coming
Everyone aware of all the AI advancements, knows its coming.
IMO we aren’t as close as they say we are. This is like driverless cars, where we are 90% of the way there, but the last 10% is extremely difficult to attain. Labs are trying to hype themselves as being on the cusp to drive investor interest. They also love the smell of their own farts.
We’re not going to have AGI any time soon unless the US or Chinese government has a secret Manhattan Project-style program to develop it using all new technologies.
I feel like the media and government has really gassed up “AI” (machine learning, really, but that’s so 2010) to heroic proportions. what we have now and are calling AI is nowhere close to true intelligence. it’s a different paradigm entirely, more like a sophisticated search engine and data aggregator.