Close Menu
    AGI could now arrive as early as 2026 — but not all scientists agree
    Futurology

    AGI could now arrive as early as 2026 — but not all scientists agree

    Share.
    View 13 Comments

    13 Comments

    1. Gari_305 on

      From the article

      More recent surveys expect the technological singularity to arrive sooner. For instance, one of the [most recent studies](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai), conducted in 2023, questioned 2,778 scientists, and suggested AGI will be achieved by 2040 at the latest. Some in the field, like [Dario Amodei](https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=6-e-ZBEAAAAJ&hl=en), AI researcher and CEO of AI company Anthropic, believe it may even happen as soon as 2026.

      The rise of AGI has been fueled by the rapid advancement of transformer-based large language models (LLMs). This is the technology on which chatbots like ChatGPT and image generators like Dall-E are based. Before the advancement of these technologies, some [scientists had predicted](https://emerj.com/when-will-we-reach-the-singularity-a-timeline-consensus-from-ai-researchers/) in 2019 that AGI would occur by 2060, or possibly never at all.

    2. NameLips on

      I wonder how we could tell the difference between an unintelligent AI trained to convince people it was intelligent, and a truly intelligent AI.

    3. bdonaldo on

      >AI researcher and **CEO of AI company Anthropic**, believe it may even happen as soon as 2026

      The only expert in the article who claims AGI will arrive in 2026 has a clear financial motive to say so.

      Sounds cool but this is not going to happen one year from now, and it seems less likely every day that AGI (a definition which seems to be transforming before our very eyes) will arise from LLMs at all; the advancement of LLMs has already passed the fast-growth part of the curve and is well into diminishing returns territory.

    4. Spara-Extreme on

      2026 will get here and they’ll just redefine what AGI means so they can declare mission accomplished. These model’s aren’t sitting there thinking about anything outside of queries, they are no closer to AGI now then they were ten years ago.

    5. BitRunr on

      AGI has potentially been as little as a year away for as long as someone can make money from the hype, uncertainty, disbelief, or some combination.

      >Dario Amodei, AI researcher and CEO of AI company Anthropic, believe it may even happen as soon as 2026.

      Shocked. Shocked! … Not that shocked.

    6. snowbirdnerd on

      Mostly this is propaganda by people who own AI companies and not a real prediction from experts 

    9. random8002 on

      to me AGI is in the same bucket as flying cars, robot maids, pneumatic tube transportation, etc…

    10. emsiem22 on

      Did any of those 5,288 AI researchers and experts said how? (rhetorical question)

    12. ChocolateGoggles on

      Based on the relatively slow progress I’ll believe it when I see it. I like these products but they’re a far cry from AGI.

    13. BaldBear_13 on

      > The updated analysis, conducted Feb. 18 by Cem Dilmegani, principal analyst at AIMultiple Research, has combed through approximately 8,600 predictions.

      note that it’s “conducted”, not “published”, or “completed”. Nope, he reviewed “8,600 predictions” in one day. So he either used AI, or *is* an AI.