Major banana exporters could face ‘60% drop’ in growing area due to warming
Major banana exporters could face ‘60% drop’ in growing area due to warming
Major banana exporters could face ‘60% drop’ in growing area due to warming
Major banana exporters could face ‘60% drop’ in growing area due to warming
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Large-scale banana plantations in Latin America and the Caribbean could face a “dramatic” reduction in “suitable” growing area by 2080 due to rising temperatures, a new study warns.
Banana production is a labour-intensive process and the $25bn banana industry provides employment for [more than one million](https://www.iisd.org/ssi/commodities/banana-coverage/) workers globally. Latin America and the Caribbean are responsible for [80%](https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/ssi-global-market-report-banana.pdf) of the world’s banana exports.
The study, published in [Nature Food](https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01130-1), investigates how climate change could impact export-driven banana plantations in the world’s biggest banana-exporting region.
It finds rising temperatures will drive a 60% reduction in the land area currently suitable for large-scale banana plantations in the region by 2080.
As the suitable area for banana plantations shrinks, farmers will need to adapt through implementing irrigation, implementing drought-resilient varieties of banana and shifting their growing regions, the study says.
An expert not involved in the study warns that “the current intensive banana industrial model perpetuates certain injustices towards farmers”. She tells Carbon Brief that the research “provides valuable insight about the constraints [and] risks”, adding that it “should be a call for adaptation – and also transforming the industry for the better”.
Good thing they aren’t mainly poor countries who heavily depend on agriculture. . . . Oh wait.
I somehow just noticed how the wording is often “could” instead of “will”. Now I know the researchers have to be careful about what they know for a fact versus what is *likely* to happen, but still. I wonder if “30% will be destroyed” versus “60% could be destroyed” would result in different reactions? I don’t know.
Also 2080 is 55 years away. I’m not sure how much accuracy there is projecting that far with so many variables, but that’s not what I’m bummed about. What I’m bummed about is that it’s so far away that no one in the industry will care at all because they’ll be out of it by then.