Am I reading the Hispanic men properly? Quick look says they were the biggest movers towards trump?
RuggerJibberJabber on
It’s insane to see groups he openly despises and wants to destroy voting for him. Like the old saying: turkeys voting for xmas
ale_93113 on
Hispanics now behave (electorally) like whites, if this continues to hold, they would probably become like italians, lumped with whites in future elections and censuses
its not just in voting patterns but in marriage patterns too as almost half of all “interracial” marriages are white/hispanic
it wouldnt be the first or the second time that a catholic group of inmigrants from a western culture become white when their behavior becomes similar enough to the rest of the white population
Malvania on
This is sorted backwards. Given the correlations, the groups should be “white men,” “white women,” etc., with subgroups by age. That would make the data look less chaotic and make the changes pop more
xalaux on
Huh… it’s ironic, isn’t it?
Normalfa on
I really hate this kind of discussions because it completely overlooks differences in turnout and can give you a totally misleading picture.
If I have 100 people that vote, 40 for Trump and 60 for Biden, Trump’s share is 40%. If now I have a candidate deeply unpopular and you suddenly have 40 that vote for Trump and 50 for Harris, then Trump’s share increases to 44% despite having the exact same number of people voting for him. Support for him didn’t increase, but support for his opponent collapsed. Trump won 30.9% of the electorate in 2020 and only made a minor improvement to 31.6% in 2024. The Dems went from 33.8% to 30.7%.
It would be more meaningful to see a change in absolute numbers or as a percentage of the total electorate and not just the voters. It would make sense to me that different ethnicities had different turnout numbers.
SmarterThanCornPop on
It will never not be funny that democrats spent the entire time obsessing over white men for Trump and then lost ground with every other demographic.
Mr__Perfect_ on
isnt this a repost from a few weeks ago?
panplemoussenuclear on
As a Hispanic gay man this jibes with the homophobia, anti woke sentiment I experience from my family and their community.
thesixfingerman on
This makes it look like his recent win was due almost entirely to Hispanics.
Technologytwitt on
The answer is, there’s still a vast majority of people who vote based on a policy or a position rather than the person (their morals, ethics, character, etc). Couldn’t be more evident in Tonald Dump’s case, most of the followers are for whatever he says rather than the man himself.
How people Vote:
First for candidates statements & claims (whether it’s a lie or not, it’s whatever they want to hear)
Second for Party
Third out of frustration from existing Administration (could also be 1st in some cases)
Fourth for whoever their (friends, etc) vote for
Outrageous_Match2619 on
Trump: “I’m going to deport Hispanics.”
Hispanics: “I like that guy.”
Rosaadriana on
Interesting. Across the board Hispanic men and women support for Trump went up. What lies did he tell them? How was the propaganda deliver that made them fall for it? How do they feel about it now? Are they happy with lack of due process and detention? Just curious so I know how much to care.
nadim77389 on
I live near a lot of Hispanics. Another reason they flipped to trump was immigration. Sounds a little odd but a lot of these families have been here for multiple generations and don’t like getting lumped in with the immigrants freshly migrating in.
Abhimanyu_Uchiha on
The hispanic community is largely made of devout catholics, I can see why team red would appeal to them
dinklberg1990 on
Man the Latino vote literally is pulling the ladder up with them, and it won’t even help that’s wild.
nhlcyclesophist on
This sustains the hope I feel for people my kids’ age.
Doyoueverjustlikeugh on
Black women will forever be the goated demographic.
ekins1992 on
Man the democrats have really lost the American people. So embarrassing for them. Hopefully they can make some much needed adjustments to give themselves a better chance in the next election
Nutt130 on
Well on the bright side thanks to Trumps policies there won’t be as many Hispanic voters left /s
Farren246 on
OK but *why* are hispanics massively more supportive of Trump in 2024 than they were in 2020?
Or was there some reason for them to vote “anyone but Harris” and Trump just happened to be the other party’s nominee?
chrisnlnz on
Black Men are an interesting demographic in this graph, why would he gain support from under 30s and over 45s but lose support from 30-44?
KharKhas on
I love how Americans from APAC region are lumped as “other”
JillScottydoesntknow on
I do love that no matter how you look at this, most black woman of all the ages listed were overwhelmingly like “nah, absolutely not. We don’t like this man”
Soggy-Software on
The Hispanics Jesus h Christ
29Jan2025 on
Why Asians are not in this data? South and Southeast Asian Americans are massively pro Trump too. Lol
therequiembellishere on
Segmented charts like this should also have figures for roughly how much of the electorate (both in millions and as a percent of the whole, and their comparative sizes between 2020 and 2024) each segment represents. Gives a better picture of the impact of these swings.
Shinamori90 on
Interesting shift in support! I think it’s a mix of both traditional factors like the economy and social issues, but also the cultural and generational divides playing a big role. A lot of Hispanic voters seem to be feelin more aligned with Trump on issues like the economy and religious values, as mentioned. But it’s def a complex pic—just when you think you have a clear explanation, you realize how many different factors are at play across such a diverse group.
beastwood6 on
So the biggest movers are Hispanic men?
Change democratic platform policy accordingly?
I don’t La-tinx-o
susankeane on
Amazing that the Mexicans he wants so badly to build a wall to keep out decided he was their guy
fourjay on
There should be a really big caveat here. Exit polls are not designed for this sort of analysis, their intended use is to help call the results on election day. This sort of demographic use is interesting, and for considerable time after the election, this is the only data set like it, however flawed the data is. But using it this way is error prone and prone to heavy overweigthing of small changes and random noise.
trenixjetix on
Supposedly… which one is the 2020 data? The blue or the yellow? maybe im dumb
Mean-Gene91 on
Something going on in the Hispanic men and women demos huh?…… that’s working out great….
baschroe on
Any chance that this might be the easiest target demographic for electoral fraud? Hard to imagine that so many people would change their view of him 4 years later, especially when they risk deportation. Wry hard to make sense out of how there view of him could change so positively. Don’t want to be a conspiracy theorist, just very hard to rationalize.
SkepMod on
My read is that I democratically shoe-horning Harris into the nomination cost Dems the election. Hispanic men and some Hispanic women didn’t sign on to that idea.
I don’t believe there was some major increase in Trump’s popularity.
Atuk-77 on
Hispanic men were very foolish for supporting Trump, it comes from inflation and nostalgia about lower prices before Covid.
Cayuga94 on
Blows up the “BIPOC Theory” that has been a cornerstone of democratic politics since at least the Obama years. This holds that non-white people will always see themselves as having a common cause together and therefore will always vote against Republicans. Same with women. As we see here from these results, not so much. It turns out race is much more nuanced than that.
![[OC] How much did support for Trump change between 2020 and 2024?](https://www.byteseu.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/kv5b7ffurlse1-851x1024.png "[OC] How much did support for Trump change between 2020 and 2024?")
39 Comments
Source: [2020](https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results) [2024](https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/national-results/general/president/0)
Tools: [Datawrapper](https://www.datawrapper.de/)
Am I reading the Hispanic men properly? Quick look says they were the biggest movers towards trump?
It’s insane to see groups he openly despises and wants to destroy voting for him. Like the old saying: turkeys voting for xmas
Hispanics now behave (electorally) like whites, if this continues to hold, they would probably become like italians, lumped with whites in future elections and censuses
its not just in voting patterns but in marriage patterns too as almost half of all “interracial” marriages are white/hispanic
it wouldnt be the first or the second time that a catholic group of inmigrants from a western culture become white when their behavior becomes similar enough to the rest of the white population
This is sorted backwards. Given the correlations, the groups should be “white men,” “white women,” etc., with subgroups by age. That would make the data look less chaotic and make the changes pop more
Huh… it’s ironic, isn’t it?
I really hate this kind of discussions because it completely overlooks differences in turnout and can give you a totally misleading picture.
If I have 100 people that vote, 40 for Trump and 60 for Biden, Trump’s share is 40%. If now I have a candidate deeply unpopular and you suddenly have 40 that vote for Trump and 50 for Harris, then Trump’s share increases to 44% despite having the exact same number of people voting for him. Support for him didn’t increase, but support for his opponent collapsed. Trump won 30.9% of the electorate in 2020 and only made a minor improvement to 31.6% in 2024. The Dems went from 33.8% to 30.7%.
It would be more meaningful to see a change in absolute numbers or as a percentage of the total electorate and not just the voters. It would make sense to me that different ethnicities had different turnout numbers.
It will never not be funny that democrats spent the entire time obsessing over white men for Trump and then lost ground with every other demographic.
isnt this a repost from a few weeks ago?
As a Hispanic gay man this jibes with the homophobia, anti woke sentiment I experience from my family and their community.
This makes it look like his recent win was due almost entirely to Hispanics.
The answer is, there’s still a vast majority of people who vote based on a policy or a position rather than the person (their morals, ethics, character, etc). Couldn’t be more evident in Tonald Dump’s case, most of the followers are for whatever he says rather than the man himself.
How people Vote:
First for candidates statements & claims (whether it’s a lie or not, it’s whatever they want to hear)
Second for Party
Third out of frustration from existing Administration (could also be 1st in some cases)
Fourth for whoever their (friends, etc) vote for
Trump: “I’m going to deport Hispanics.”
Hispanics: “I like that guy.”
Interesting. Across the board Hispanic men and women support for Trump went up. What lies did he tell them? How was the propaganda deliver that made them fall for it? How do they feel about it now? Are they happy with lack of due process and detention? Just curious so I know how much to care.
I live near a lot of Hispanics. Another reason they flipped to trump was immigration. Sounds a little odd but a lot of these families have been here for multiple generations and don’t like getting lumped in with the immigrants freshly migrating in.
The hispanic community is largely made of devout catholics, I can see why team red would appeal to them
Man the Latino vote literally is pulling the ladder up with them, and it won’t even help that’s wild.
This sustains the hope I feel for people my kids’ age.
Black women will forever be the goated demographic.
Man the democrats have really lost the American people. So embarrassing for them. Hopefully they can make some much needed adjustments to give themselves a better chance in the next election
Well on the bright side thanks to Trumps policies there won’t be as many Hispanic voters left /s
OK but *why* are hispanics massively more supportive of Trump in 2024 than they were in 2020?
Or was there some reason for them to vote “anyone but Harris” and Trump just happened to be the other party’s nominee?
Black Men are an interesting demographic in this graph, why would he gain support from under 30s and over 45s but lose support from 30-44?
I love how Americans from APAC region are lumped as “other”
I do love that no matter how you look at this, most black woman of all the ages listed were overwhelmingly like “nah, absolutely not. We don’t like this man”
The Hispanics Jesus h Christ
Why Asians are not in this data? South and Southeast Asian Americans are massively pro Trump too. Lol
Segmented charts like this should also have figures for roughly how much of the electorate (both in millions and as a percent of the whole, and their comparative sizes between 2020 and 2024) each segment represents. Gives a better picture of the impact of these swings.
Interesting shift in support! I think it’s a mix of both traditional factors like the economy and social issues, but also the cultural and generational divides playing a big role. A lot of Hispanic voters seem to be feelin more aligned with Trump on issues like the economy and religious values, as mentioned. But it’s def a complex pic—just when you think you have a clear explanation, you realize how many different factors are at play across such a diverse group.
So the biggest movers are Hispanic men?
Change democratic platform policy accordingly?
I don’t La-tinx-o
Amazing that the Mexicans he wants so badly to build a wall to keep out decided he was their guy
There should be a really big caveat here. Exit polls are not designed for this sort of analysis, their intended use is to help call the results on election day. This sort of demographic use is interesting, and for considerable time after the election, this is the only data set like it, however flawed the data is. But using it this way is error prone and prone to heavy overweigthing of small changes and random noise.
Supposedly… which one is the 2020 data? The blue or the yellow? maybe im dumb
Something going on in the Hispanic men and women demos huh?…… that’s working out great….
Any chance that this might be the easiest target demographic for electoral fraud? Hard to imagine that so many people would change their view of him 4 years later, especially when they risk deportation. Wry hard to make sense out of how there view of him could change so positively. Don’t want to be a conspiracy theorist, just very hard to rationalize.
My read is that I democratically shoe-horning Harris into the nomination cost Dems the election. Hispanic men and some Hispanic women didn’t sign on to that idea.
I don’t believe there was some major increase in Trump’s popularity.
Hispanic men were very foolish for supporting Trump, it comes from inflation and nostalgia about lower prices before Covid.
Blows up the “BIPOC Theory” that has been a cornerstone of democratic politics since at least the Obama years. This holds that non-white people will always see themselves as having a common cause together and therefore will always vote against Republicans. Same with women. As we see here from these results, not so much. It turns out race is much more nuanced than that.
To the Hispanic community: regret?