Historical betting odds for Papal Conclaves (based on all available historical data). https://smokefilledroom.substack.com/p/who-will-be-the-next-pope
Posted by Alternative-Rate-379
![[OC] Historical Betting Odds for Papal Conclaves](https://www.byteseu.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/97ieval0rzxe1-1011x1024.png "[OC] Historical Betting Odds for Papal Conclaves")
Historical betting odds for Papal Conclaves (based on all available historical data). https://smokefilledroom.substack.com/p/who-will-be-the-next-pope
Posted by Alternative-Rate-379
7 Comments
Data was sourced from a 2015 study from Nottingham University: [https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1421334/forecasting-the-outcome-of-closed-door-decisions-evidence-from-500-years-of-betting-on-papal-conclaves](https://nottingham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1421334/forecasting-the-outcome-of-closed-door-decisions-evidence-from-500-years-of-betting-on-papal-conclaves)
Interesting, why so bad? One would think there’s a lot reasons for accuracy such as widespread attention and a long public history of candidates. The hidden aspects of the decision process counts against accuracy.
I missed this year’s Papal Combine. How is this year’s Papal Draft looking? Do we know pad levels and 440 times for the cardinal candidates?
Where did they get betting odds data from 1503?
How can someone have 0 odds? Surely it would only be 0 if they weren’t in the running?
Wow Vegas didn’t really see it coming in the 1522 Conclave. What a day
there is a betting odds in 1503?